Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science ed. The autobiography section features people who can remember all the way back to the s or so, a time when statistics was very different than it is now. He started at the upper left corner of the blackboard and finished at the lower right. The lectures were smooth and the delivery was a uniform distribution. The topic was on a sequential procedure that Leon Herbach he was ahead of me had worked on. Wolfowitz had very brief office hours, so there usually was a queue to see him. When I did see him in his office he asked me to explain my question at the blackboard.
While talking at the blackboard Wolfowitz was multi-tasking even in by reading his mail and talking on the telephone. I often think of this as an operatic trio in which each singer is on a different wavelength. This had the desired effect in that I never went back.
Wolfowitz taught sequential analysis , Cochran taught sampling, and R. Fisher taught something. This confirmed his results, leading to the possibilities that either there was something wrong with the experiment, which he denied, or his prior expectations were off. All in all, this was not a happy outcome for either of us.
I subsequently decided to use a subset of the data for illustration in a regression course that I was teaching at the time. This caused some anxiety over the possibility that I had made an error somewhere, but after considerable additional analysis I discovered that the whole issue centered on one rat. The anxiety that I felt during my exploration of the rat data abated but did not disappear completely because of the possibility that similar situations had gone unnoticed in other regressions.
- The Felidae 1: Laithe’s Pride.
- A New Foundation of Physical Theories.
- The Machine Stops: ;
There were no methods at the time that would have identified the impact of the one unusual rat; for example, it was not an outlier as judged by the standard techniques. I decided that I needed a systematic way of finding such influential observations if they were to occur in future regressions, and I subsequently developed a method that easily identified the irreconcilable rat. For a start, people giving advice lie.
This point has been summarized nicely by Radhika Nagpal Perhaps toss a coin. You can hope for better. What do statisticians do when we have to choose between treatments A and B, where there is genuine uncertainty within the expert community about the preferred treatment? Do we look for a statistician over 40 and ask them which treatment we should choose? You may wonder whether a randomized trial is justified in your circumstances.
Is it true that there is genuine uncertainty within the expert community i. Not all life incidents are amusing. When is equal not equal? I was pleased to reach the meat of the anthology: the freeform technical papers. Nan M. These sources vary from survey data such as a monthly survey of 60, households, which represent only.
The administrative records such as those in LEHD are not collected for the purpose of statistical inference, but rather because of legal requirements, business practice, political considerations, etc. They tend to cover a large percentage of the population, and therefore they must contain useful information for inference. For instance, Sellke et al. If scientists understood that a p -value of.
TABLE Narrative account of the Cultural Revolution. Mao dealt with the first issue the threat of American invasion! How did it work? The CR cycle starts with the promises of an ideology; because the ideology is mistaken about human nature, economics, and reality having, among other things, transvalued moral values so that success is proof of cupidity while failure is proof of worthiness , it does not and indeed cannot live up to the promises. Per Davies , these disappointed expectations set the stage.
- NLS/BPH: Talking Book Topics, March-April .
- slvoight | LibraryThing.
- In This Section.
The disappointment generates dissonance: many people genuinely believed that the solutions had been found and that the promises could be kept and the goals were realistic, but somehow it came out all wrong. Nor are there any enemies close at hand: they were all killed or exiled. The cargo cult keeps implementing the revolution and waving the flags, but the cargo of First World countries stubbornly refuses to land. No matter that victory was total, the failure of their policies proves that the enemies are still everywhere.
With no free thought, all news is forced through an ideological lens where cant replaces conversation , and if flattering news cannot be ginned up, it will simply be faked and should it somehow be debunked anyway, it will go down the memory hole ; no one need order faking, it is simply a natural response to incentives and the double-bind placed on the lower ranks who simultaneously must satisfy their superiors but are also forced into contact with reality.
So what is the solution? Or to put it another way, the top uses the bottom as a distributed decentralized army to attack the middle and purge it, reimposing top-down control and driving political shifts by narrowing an Overton window. If he turned against him, he would be exposed for failing to spot the danger in the first place.
However clever these political maneuverings might be, by invoking mass riots and purges across the largest nation on earth in order to remove one rival official, they were like using a A-bomb to kill a fly. Instead, resources were diverted to cult objects: 2—5 billion Mao badges, for example, were manufactured, impeding industries like airplanes which needed aluminum, and forcing Mao himself to quash it.
Poverty escalated, and families would share single sets of clothes the rest going naked or in straw , with mud-eating, goitre, and other diseases of malnutrition surging. Students at Peking University, the elite, ate slop, chewing carefully to avoid breaking teeth. There were shortages of buttons, matches, toothpaste, and in some areas toothbrushes were a luxury adopted only years later, with waiting lists years long for thermoses; in Turfan, there was allotted 1 bar of soap per 3 people—per season.
What should we make of this? For me, it dramatizes the effects of ideology on the real-world, especially as it disseminates out from the elite and is amplified by unchecked followers. Mao, of course, would never have gotten his own hands dirty by cannibalizing someone accused of being descended from a shopkeeper, but a phrase from Beijing ripples out, correctly interpreted by the fringes as a dogwhistle.
This might seem extreme, but it all happened, and was one of the worst things to ever happen.
Launched to instant infamy, it turned out to have actually struck a major chord among women seeking sperm, who were generally treated extremely shabbily by the medical establishment which when doing as it pleased, casually chose donors largely at random and denied the women any kind of choice or information about the donor Plotz notes the first recorded case of artificial insemination involved abruptly chloroforming the woman and using a random medical student. The online series includes some of their personal reactions to their experience, beliefs about the harm, some of them being reconnected with each other, descriptions of their current circumstances etc.
So I enjoyed much of the book and read it in one or two sittings. Much of this is relevant to anyone thinking about the current prospects for embryo selection on traits. He lacks any kind of sympathy. This slight disdain extends from the people to the core topics. He also makes a number of errors or questionable claims or perpetuates things he should know better.
I noted down a few while reading:. What were the kids like? Had the genius genes created genius babies? Were there lots of little Shockleys out there, hot-wiring the latest Intel chips to work double time? In fact, the genetic improvement was probably minuscule. Nobel sperm would give modest odds of slightly better genes in the half share of chromosomes supplied by the father.inonsime.tk
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And even then Graham would be operating on only the nature side of the equation: he had no control over nurture-schools, upbringing, parents. The Nobel sperm bank kids, I realized, were messengers from our future. We are on the brink of the age of genetic expectations. Successful fathers had successful sons. This, Galton claimed, proved that God-given abilities were passed from one generation to the next. It did not concern Galton that in Victorian England, advantages of birth, wealth, and education might have given the sons of famous men a career boost.
How they longed to cut!
Straight Shot (K. W. Jeter Suspense & Thriller Books, book 16) by K W Jeter
Of course, most of the purportedly genetic ailments developed by eugenicists were not, in fact, genetic in origin. All of those are highly heritable and many genetic variants for them have been found, particularly alcoholism, insanity presumably schizophrenia , and deafness. Oddly, another trait that doctors sometimes tried to match was religion, as though it had some genetic component.
And even if they had been genetic, sterilization would have been a hopelessly bad cure for them. It would have taken literally thousands of generations of mass sterilization to significantly reduce the incidence of genetic diseases. At the time, sperm collection was practically the only widely available fertility treatment that worked. Social science research was beginning to show that intelligence was at least partly heritable. I was particularly struck by. He discussed incendiary topics in a bizarre manner - exactly as if he were summarizing the latest advances in semiconductor research.
He was the iceman.
He had no particular feelings for blacks one way or another. He hardly knew any blacks. To him, his racial conclusions were simply the logical outcome of a train of thought. As far as he was concerned, once he started to address human quality, he would follow its logic wherever it took him. In his mind, his conclusions had nothing to do with any actual black person; he was simply making an irrefutable point. One might think that in discussing a highly controversial and highly important topic, being dispassionate, having no personal grievances, and attempting to hew strictly to the science and logic would be laudable.
Apparently not. Shockley thought he could prove to blacks that whiteness led to intelligence. He asked NAACP leader Roger Wilkins to help him collect blood samples from members of the Congressional Black Caucus and other celebrated blacks, on the grounds that these accomplished people would surely prove to be significantly white. When Wilkins rejected him furiously, Shockley suggested that Stanford blood-test its five hundred black students. You can imagine how well that went over on campus.
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